The weakest manufacturing industry puts the German

2022-07-27
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The weak manufacturing industry has dragged the German economy into a dilemma.

for a long time, Germany has insisted on building the country with industry and focusing on the development of the real economy. German manufacturing enjoys a high reputation in the world. Thanks to its adherence to the manufacturing industry, the German economy has shown strong resilience in the financial crisis, and the consumer market of waste plastics can get rid of the crisis quickly. However, since the second half of 2018, the continued weakness of the manufacturing industry has dragged the German economy into a dilemma, and the recession risk has increased

according to the latest data from IHS Markit, a British market research organization, the PMI of German manufacturing industry fell to an 84 month low in July, and was below the 50 year low line for the seventh consecutive month. IHS Markit economist Smith believes that with the further deterioration of the manufacturing industry, the risk of a mild technical recession in the euro zone's largest economy is rising

recently released mid-2019 performance reports of some manufacturing enterprises also reflect the grim reality faced by the German manufacturing industry. For example, Daimler's net profit in the first half of the year fell by 78% year-on-year, and the global sales and profits of its Mercedes Benz brand passenger cars fell; Chemical giant BASF's operating profit in the first half of the year shrank by 45% year-on-year, and its annual sales and profit expectations were lowered

the reason for this is that the weak performance of German manufacturing enterprises is mainly related to the accelerated decline in export orders, and this round of decline is the most obvious in more than a decade. Schweitzer, chairman of the German Chamber of Commerce and industry, said that the expectation of German industrial and commercial enterprises for overseas business was the lowest in 10 years

the research group of Anyang Federation of Social Sciences conducted in-depth research on steel production enterprises, steel processing and steel using enterprises, trading enterprises and steel market in Anyang City.

according to the data of the German Federal Bureau of statistics, the new industrial orders in Germany in May this year decreased by 2.2% month on month, significantly lower than the market expectation. Due to the limited capacity of the local market, the German economy is highly dependent on exports, while the slowdown of global economic growth, together with protectionism, trade friction, the rising uncertainty of the UK's brexit, and the intensification of geopolitical risks, have led to sluggish external demand. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently pointed out that the export dependent German economy has been severely hit by the slowdown in global demand

according to the data, in the first five months of this year, Germany's trade surplus in goods was 93.3 billion euros, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, including a 2.3% increase in the introduction of Chen manor, the inspector of goods export volume. The German wholesale and foreign trade association predicts that German exports may grow by 1.5% in 2019, only half of last year

binman, chairman of the German wholesale and foreign trade association, pointed out that the increase of trade barriers particularly worried German export enterprises, which involved not only tariffs, but also so-called non-tariff barriers such as technical regulations. This has seriously affected the daily business of German export enterprises

it is worth noting that the experimental report can be printed and the experimental data can be saved at the end of the experiment. Although Germany's GDP in the first quarter of this year increased by 0.4% month on month than expected, when the warm winter and other one-time factors decline, the growth in the second quarter is likely to slow down or even stagnate. What is more worrying is that Germany has not yet stopped its decline and rebound in both exports and industrial output. As of July, export expectations, business climate and other relevant indicators were still deteriorating. The German federal economic ministry said that from the current situation, Germany's industry will remain sluggish in the coming months

in addition, the continued downturn in exports and manufacturing is likely to be gradually transmitted to employment and consumption, further stalling the German economy. At present, many institutions have lowered the economic growth forecast of Germany in 2019 to less than 1%

in addition to external and cyclical factors, Germany, which has always been regarded as a European top student, has made slow progress in solving its own structural problems. Some political elites fantasize that Germany does not need to change, but that other European countries need to follow Germany's high-quality development path

fratzscher, director of the German Economic Research Institute in Berlin, criticized that despite the growing imbalance and vulnerability, Germany has hardly implemented meaningful economic reforms in the past decade and failed to use the boom period to update its economic model

he pointed out that low levels of public and private investment led to low productivity in non trade sectors, while low productivity and weak social partnership led to the expansion of low-income groups in society

imf also pointed out that Germany faces severe structural challenges in the medium term. The IMF called on Germany to adopt a more proactive fiscal policy and promote structural reform

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