Tod model for market analysis of China's real esta

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2019 China's real estate industry market analysis: TOD mode has become a new direction for the development of the new blue ocean 20 trillion market size

2019 China's real estate industry market analysis: TOD mode has become a new direction for the development of the new blue ocean 20 trillion market size, paint,

2019 China's real estate industry market analysis: TOD mode has become a new direction for the development of the new blue ocean 20 trillion market size

September 9, 2019

1 China's real estate industry has gradually entered a period of stable development

if China's real estate is divided into four stages: embryonic stage, high-speed growth stage, stable development stage and mature stage, with the arrival of the node of "the sales volume of China's real estate commercial housing in 2018 is nearly 15 trillion", China's real estate industry has gradually entered a period of stable development, and this may also be the last high-speed growth opportunity for real estate enterprises

but it cannot be ignored. This is also a rare period of "high and fast prosperity" of China's real estate. According to the report of prospective industry research institute, from 2016, China's real estate sales exceeded the 10 trillion yuan mark (11.76 trillion yuan) for the first time, to 2018, China's commercial housing sales reached 15 trillion yuan (14.997 trillion yuan), reaching a new high over the years, but the growth rate fell to 12.2%, down 1.5 percentage points from 2017. Only two years have passed, during which the vertical and horizontal chain of real estate has given birth to new attempts of IP, stock operation, TOD and other complicated and sophisticated molecular structures

sales statistics and growth of China's real estate market in

data source: the forward-looking Industry Research Institute sorted out

2. TOD mode has become a new blue ocean for development

especially the TOD mode with outstanding scale and benefit prospects, which has been regarded as a new blue ocean. Under the TOD system, the city road can organically connect the internal core blocks, and gather large-scale commercial complexes, business office space, commercial supporting facilities and medium and high-end residential buildings. In the future, considering the total scale of housing, mass consumption, property service system, business environment, traffic planning, Tod will be an important choice for real estate enterprises to participate in the construction of urban sustainable development

on September 5, at the 9th China value real estate annual conference, Gao Yixuan, President of Beijing Investment Development Co., Ltd., Gu Jianming, President of blue green Shuangcheng technology group, Zhang Yan, assistant general manager of Yuexiu real estate and general manager of Dawan District Rail Transit real estate company, and Zhang Bo, chief analyst of 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, discussed the methodology and development concept of TOD in depth from their respective experience and professional fields, and contributed many dry goods worthy of reference to the industry

3. China has entered the "TOD time" 20 trillion blue ocean with amazing explosive power. The TOD mode is a public transport oriented development, and a non automotive planning and design method to maximize the use of public transport when planning a residential or commercial area

with the continuous enhancement of TOD development hardware foundation, by the end of 2018, 493 cities in 72 countries and regions had opened urban rail transit systems, with a mileage of more than 26100 kilometers

in China, there are 187 urban rail transit lines, with an operating mileage of 5766.7 kilometers, and more than 18.44 billion passengers; In 2018 alone, 36 new or extended lines with a total length of 734.0 kilometers were opened in 16 cities in China. Rail transit is developing rapidly in major cities. At present, China fully has the hardware foundation to develop urban Tod

statistics and growth of the total length of urban rail transit operating lines in China in

data source: the forward looking Industry Research Institute collated

at the same time, some provinces, cities and regions in China have put forward corresponding policies to encourage TOD mode, which has been strongly supported by the government; Many real estate enterprises also have certain urban TOD building capabilities, and have built corresponding models in some cities. It can be said that China has vigorously developed the TOD model and has sufficient soft power guarantee at the same time

-- China's "TOD time" has arrived. What does this mean for real estate enterprises

the on-site guests gave successful cases all over the world. From Japan's famous TOD project Tokyo Roppongi new city, this project with two subway lines has dug 42 meters (7 floors) deep under the platform, creating Japan's first rail integrated commercial complex. Even when the economy is in recession, apartments in Roppongi new town are in short supply

the Cullinan on the top of MTR Kowloon station also once had the reputation of "the king of apartments in Asia", because the Kowloon Station here has two hub express lines, Tung Chung Line and airport express, which can transfer to Guangzhou Shenzhen Hong Kong high-speed railway, and the Kowloon station also has the advantage of check-in to the world

Although TOD is a subdivision field, this model can create strong viscous consumption power and is progressiveness in itself. In terms of scale, Gao Yixuan, President of Beijing investment development, announced a set of dry goods data on the forum. TOD is a very important blue ocean market. The volume of rail transit bases in the country alone is about 40billion yuan. At present, there are more than 100 rail transit bases planned in the country, with an average development scale of more than 500000 square meters. After conversion, it can be seen that the scale of this field reaches 4trillion yuan (excluding the integration of rail stations)

"in addition, there are 84 rail transit station integration projects that Beijing has just sorted out, which is a huge market. If you add the integration part, the capacity of the whole market is about 10 trillion to 20 trillion yuan, and the explosive force is amazing."

Gao Yixuan believes that in the future, real estate enterprises will gain very lasting and far-reaching returns by going deep into this field. Zhang Yan, assistant to the general manager of Yuexiu real estate and general manager of Dawan District Rail Transit real estate company, also pointed out that TOD uses public transport to drive the development of cities. At present, many cities have invested a lot of money to build subways and generate more subway stations to stimulate the development of surrounding areas, so enterprises have more choices for cities. From this point of view, it is indeed a great opportunity

"Taking Guangzhou as an example, Guangzhou Metro now has an operating mileage of more than 400 kilometers, and will exceed 1000 kilometers in the future, which will produce more subway stations, including various facilities. Yuexiu real estate sees this development space in the future, and has cooperated with Guangzhou Metro this year. In Dawan District, our rail transit business will account for more than half of the company's business in the future."

4. The threshold of TOD field is too high. Not all real estate enterprises are suitable for it.

after the real estate industry reaches 15 trillion yuan, the larger space actually comes from digging deep into sub sectors. TOD is one of the fields that most real estate enterprises are trying to compete for, but not all real estate enterprises are suitable for TOD. The environment of the production workshop is often noisy

Gao Yixuan believes that the reason for Beijing Investment and development exhibition to do TOD is that the company has a very close cooperative relationship with the Metro Company and is a major shareholder

secondly, the TOD project does not conform to a series of ideas and norms of traditional benchmark real estate enterprises when doing projects. For example, the Guogongzhuang depot, the first TOD project in Beijing, was not wanted when it was hung up, which violated the product standardization and design standardization requirements of traditional benchmark real estate enterprises

in addition, the turnover of TOD project is very slow. No matter in the early stage, you can choose translation, comparison and other methods to compare the data of multiple curves at the same time; In addition, it is difficult to sort out and build the management system

"Benchmarking real estate enterprises have 10-20 sites in each city at the same time. A general manager has to supervise many projects, but TOD projects must be specially assigned. From the operation safety of the subway to the approval of all procedures, to the subway connection and product building, professional people must do it. Therefore, we can see that many real estate enterprises say they want to participate in Tod, but few really stick to it. Beijing investment development has done it for 10 years, and sticking to it is to do it For the only business model. "

Gu Jianming, President of blue green Shuangcheng technology group, pointed out that cities will have more and more supporting requirements for new economy and new kinetic energy. For example, the urbanization rate of Hangzhou has reached 72%. Hangzhou Metro phase I project is the largest depot project in China, and the supporting facilities of commercial offices account for 10% in the planning; Among the 11 depots of Hangzhou Metro phase III project, the blue and green cities participated in 4 of them. At that time, the proportion of commercial offices accounted for 30%, and the largest proportion of commercial offices in the depot accounted for 50%. From this perspective, the comprehensive operation ability of enterprises will be more important

however, at present, with the urbanization rate and urbanization rate reaching a certain level, the urban framework is enlarged, the construction land is less and less, and the industrial land is more and more. The car depot covers an area of 200000 ~ 300000 square meters. When the rail transit development is faster and faster, such construction land must be used

just there is a threshold for taking advantage of it. Gu Jianming provided a set of data. For the time being, regardless of the differences in different regions, the cover (Engineering) cost of rail transit is about 6000~8000 yuan/square meter. There is a financial threshold for which the cost of the whole TOD project is allocated to the cover level of the subway and which to the construction level; There is a technical threshold for such projects as the intersection of stations or above the shield. For example, the blue and green Twin Cities' project in Hangzhou needs to coordinate the requirements of many levels. In addition, there are two certificates for a piece of land. Municipal land is less than 9.5 meters and development land is more than 9.5 meters. The process of getting through fire control and civil air defense is also a test for enterprises

in addition, it takes about two and a half years for a piece of land to be faster from the start of project approval to the listing of bidding, auction and listing in the secondary market, and it may take about three years if it is slightly slower. This is normal. The operation cycle is a test of the strength of the enterprise in all aspects

"so on the whole, TOD is a blue ocean, but there is a very high threshold, which needs to be accumulated, and enterprises in the whole industry need to work together to promote and strengthen communication." Gu Jianming said

5. High energy cities are more suitable for the development of TOD. The house price of 20000 yuan/square meter is the "bottom line"

at present, TOD mode is more common in large cities from a global perspective, but is it applicable to all cities

58 Zhang Bo, chief analyst of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said that it is undeniable that the TOD model has a significant positive impact on the city. In particular, through the development of rail transit combined with commerce, it can alleviate the "sleeping city", that is, the problem of regional hollowing out and excessive concentration of centers, and promote the balance of urban working and living ecology

however, the essence of TOD is not the simple addition of tracks and houses, but the thinking mode of urban supporting service providers. Through the connecting advantages of tracks, it produces "chemical reactions" in space, internal elements and crowd flow, and on this basis, it drives land premium and property appreciation, bringing broader space for the development of real estate enterprises

therefore, whether the TOD model can boost the real estate market in third and fourth tier cities depends primarily on whether the city itself has the corresponding liquidity elements. As long as there is rail transit, it is not inevitable to create the TOD model. Generally speaking, the third and fourth tier cities located in the five major urban agglomerations in China and the cities with population inflow have more advantages in building Tod

Zhang Yan believes that depending on the location of the city, for example, there are such opportunities in Dawan District, or around urban agglomerations and core cities. If it has nothing to do with the core city, or the economic strength of the city itself cannot reach a certain level, it is unlikely

"core cities and key cities in urban agglomerations have the opportunity to do high-cost land development projects. Ordinary third and fourth tier cities have insufficient magnitude and population, and the house price cannot reach 20000 yuan/square meter, which cannot support the high percentage

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