Market consolidation and callback during the diges

2022-09-23
  • Detail

Market consolidation and callback in the process of rubber price digestion

market overview

K-line chart of Japanese rubber main contract

the chart is the K-line trend chart of Japanese rubber main contract. (picture source: Wenhua Finance)

K-line chart of Shanghai Jiao main contract

the chart shows the K-line trend chart of Shanghai Jiao main contract. (picture source: Wenhua Finance)

this week, domestic rubber prices are mainly adjusted and fell, which is a digestion process of the previous sharp rise of nearly 20%. This week, the main contract completely turned to 1105. In the five trading days, the price rose by the limit on Monday. On Tuesday, the price continued to open high, hitting another high of 33320. After the shock fell, the price fell by the limit on Wednesday. On Thursday, it rebounded slightly, but the high point moved down. On Friday, the price retreated again. In the five trading days of this week, there were daily limit and daily limit, and the price fell after hitting a new high. Although the whole rising channel has not been broken, the rising rhythm has temporarily collapsed. The highest price of 33320 on Tuesday fell to 30740 on Friday, a drop of 7 days ago 7%。

the trend of Tokyo glue this week followed that of Shanghai glue. The price of Tokyo glue fluctuated in the high range in the first four trading days, and the price fell sharply on Friday. As of Friday, the contract price in March in Tokyo fell back to 324.7, and the price fell back to the level two weeks ago. The closing price of this week fell by 5.3% from the highest 343 of Tokyo glue

one week market analysis

in the process of price digestion, market consolidation and correction

the economic data released by the National Bureau of statistics last week once again confirmed the need for the central bank to raise interest rates for the first time in three years. GDP grew by 10.6% in the first three quarters and 9.6% year-on-year in the third quarter. However, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.6% in September, hitting a 23 month high. The interest rate hike of the central bank on the 19th was a measure formulated under the expectation that the CPI will continue to rise in 2009. Facts have proved that the CPI rose by 3.6% in September, which has exceeded the expected 3.5% target and expanded by 0.1%. The economic data of the third quarter reflect that the overall situation of China's economic growth has stabilized. However, if inflation continues to intensify and the regulation of the property market is still ineffective, it is predicted that the central bank may start raising interest rates again within the year. The government decision-making level has stabilized inflation by raising interest rates, and the release of this signal is very important to the whole market. This week, domestic rubber prices entered the stage of adjustment and decline, mainly due to the digestion of the nearly 20% increase in the previous period. In addition, recently, commodities guided by crude oil have entered a disorderly and repeated stage, making downstream commodities follow the adjustment

the high futures price fell, and the spot price remained stable.

this week, the average transaction price of all latex in the Chinese rubber market remained between. Compared with the sharp rise in prices in the late national day, the spot price did not plunge significantly. At present, the discount between the spot price of rubber in China rubber market and the price of main futures contracts has narrowed from around 2000 after the national day to around 300 on Friday. The stability of spot prices shows that there are no major problems in rubber fundamentals, but downstream rubber companies and intermediate traders need time to digest this process. From the perspective of the total latex trading volume in the chinarubber spot market, the trading volume began to shrink in the next few trading days of this week, with the trading volume shrinking but the price stabilizing. This sign indicates that many downstream traders began to wait and see and did not blindly receive goods

this week, the composite import price of Indonesia's No. 20 standard rubber was stable between, and the discount with the main contract price difference of domestic rubber has been maintained since October 12. In addition, the prices of Thai No. 3 cigarette glue and Indonesian No. 20 standard glue in Qingdao Free Trade Zone this week were around $4000, the same as last week. This week, the price of raw materials in Thailand remained at a high level close to 110 baht/kg, but the trading volume showed signs of shrinking compared with last week

the stock on the exchange rose for four consecutive weeks

as of October 29, the rubber inventory on the Shanghai exchange was 43511 tons, rising for the fourth consecutive week. This week, the registered warehouse receipts of rubber futures on the exchange decreased by 510 to 25990. From the perspective of calendar 6 and the history of the maximum travel of the movable gripper: 930mm, the inventory of the exchange is still at a low position, and the current inventory level is not high compared with the inventory of 150000 tons at the beginning of this year. This year, during the peak season of rubber cutting in August, the inventory was still low, indicating that the tight supply situation did exist. On the other hand, intermediate traders hoarded goods, and traders were optimistic about the forward price

in addition, from the seasonal characteristics of rubber, when the northeast monsoon begins, the cutting stop starts from north to south. First, Yunnan region of China begins to enter the cutting stop period around the middle of November; Then, in mid December or at the end of the month, Hainan Province of China entered the cut-off period. The climate in Southeast Asia is humid and hot, and rubber trees can cut rubber all year round, but the yield fluctuates periodically throughout the year. Vietnam and northern Thailand entered the cut-off period at the end of January and the beginning of February of the next year. 2 the plan clearly pointed out that the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries entered the cut-off period in southern Thailand, the Malay Peninsula, and the areas north of the equator in Indonesia, mainly Medan. The area south of the equator in Indonesia is mainly the megaport area. Due to its different location in the southern hemisphere, the cut-off period begins at the end of September and stops in October and November

at present, the rubber in Yunnan has about two weeks to enter, otherwise cavitation will occur, and the cutting stoppage period will be about one month later in Hainan. In China, the rubber is close to the cut-off period, but the stock in the exchange is gradually increasing. This is because South Asia and Southeast Asia are still in the tapping season from November to January of the next year, and traders supplement the stock by importing Southeast Asia rubber

after the rubber price reached the 30000 mark, the tire industry needs to gradually digest

after the national day, the domestic rubber futures price rose sharply, and the main contract hit a record high of 33320 on Tuesday. After several trading days, the price fell, but the price remained above 30000. This has exceeded the highest price of 28000 yuan before the financial crisis, and the spot price has also hit an all-time high. More than 50% of natural rubber is used in automobile tires. After the price hit a new high this year, it is a great pressure on downstream tire enterprises, which need a gradual digestion process. On October 18, at the emergency meeting to deal with the price rise of natural rubber held by the China Rubber Industry Association, 11 large domestic tire enterprises and some natural rubber traders jointly discussed self-help measures, and strongly appealed to the National Reserve Board to once again come up with 10000 tons of national storage rubber to stabilize the market price as soon as possible

at the same time, the efficiency of tire enterprises has decreased significantly, and the industry profit has increased negatively for four consecutive months, reaching a record low. At present, the tire industry has reached the most difficult moment. In addition to the soaring price of natural rubber, the rise of RMB exchange rate and various foreign barriers are testing China's tire industry. Now the profit margin of the tire industry has fallen to less than 3%. According to the statistics of 43 enterprises by the tire branch, the industry profit increased by 112.6% year-on-year from January to March; From January to may, it increased by 10.7% year-on-year; From January to June, it decreased by 9.4% year-on-year; From January to August, it fell by 22.7% year-on-year, and the profits of some enterprises in the third quarter even fell by 91% year-on-year. This figure is still based on the previous rubber compound. If the current natural rubber price is used, the tire enterprises will suffer a comprehensive loss

at present, tire enterprises are faced with the situation that opening up enough factory capacity is equal to losing money, and if they don't open up enough, they will lose a little money. At present, some large domestic tire enterprises such as Hangzhou Zhongce, shuangqian, Sanjiao, Guizhou, South China, Fengshen, etc. have begun to raise tire sales prices, with an overall range of about 5%. However, compared with foreign enterprises, the price adjustment range of domestic enterprises is still about 10%

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI