The hottest Shanghai rubber is expected to set off

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Shanghai rubber is expected to set off a new round of rise

if the policy stimulus can maintain the current vacuum, the rubber price is likely to rise again at the dawn of the year of the rabbit, and the first thing to pay attention to is when the previous high (38920 yuan/ton) can break through

recently, bulk commodity prices have fallen into disorderly fluctuations, and Shanghai Jiaotong has also performed repeatedly around 37000 yuan/ton, and the direction of the trend is still unclear. The overall macro policy level is relatively calm, while the rubber fundamentals are intertwined with long and short factors, and the capital game is not divided, which is the basic pattern of the current rubber market. In the coming months, it is difficult to change the tight pattern of rubber supply and demand, and the biggest uncertainty lies in policy

the policy side affects the trend of rubber price

the risk of policy uncertainty is the biggest variable faced by the commodity market in 2011

after the unprecedented quantitative easing policy in history, emerging market countries led by China began to enter the interest rate hike cycle to control the rising inflationary pressure. After the second interest rate hike by the people's Bank of China before New Year's day, it is less likely to raise interest rates again in January. In the future, price instruments may rely more on the appreciation of the people's 20 seamless steel tube material currency to prevent imported inflation; Before the holiday, the central bank mainly recovered liquidity by means of differential reserve ratio, directional central bank bills or short-term repurchases to curb banks' credit impulse, while a general increase in the statutory deposit reserve ratio is more likely to be implemented after the holiday. Judging from the lending situation in the new year, the market liquidity was still abundant in the first quarter. At the same time, the developed economies in Europe and the United States have just begun to recover, and the inflationary pressure is low, so interest rates remain low, and the probability of the introduction of qe3 in the United States has been greatly reduced, which provides positive support to the commodity market

supply and demand are still tight

the supply and demand structure of global rubber is still tight. According to the latest forecast of IRSG, the output of natural rubber in 2010 was 9.7965 million tons, the consumption of natural rubber was 9.9059 million tons, and the demand gap was 109400 tons. In 2010, the total output of synthetic rubber in the world was 12.965 million tons, and the consumption was 12.92 million tons. The production and demand were basically balanced

for the supply and demand situation in the new year, ANRPC said that if the weather conditions were normal, the global supply of natural rubber would increase by 5.3% to 9.9 million tons in 2011, while the popularity of the rubber market in the short term was "dominated by supply uncertainty". Some national rubber associations have released the latest production forecasts: the output of natural rubber in Indonesia will increase by 8% to 3.08 million tons in 2011, and that in Vietnam will increase by 4% to 780000 tons. However, in terms of the short cycle of supply, due to weather problems, the main rubber producers in Southeast Asia can be suppressed during the peak season of rubber production in 2010, the supply of raw materials decreases year-on-year, the inventory level of rubber in Southeast Asia is lower than normal, and the spot price remains high

in terms of demand, China's Tianjiao 10) interface type for three consecutive months: rs482 imports remained high. Preliminary data released by the General Administration of Customs on January 10 showed that China imported 1.68 million tons of natural rubber (including latex) from January to December 2010, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year; In 2010, China automobile and China wood plastic technology have changed from following to leading. Both production and sales have broken the global production and sales record, and once again ranked first in the world. At the same time, the production and sales of automobiles in major economies around the world have achieved an increase of more than 10%. Looking forward to 2011, the withdrawal of stimulus policies in the domestic auto industry and overdraft consumption caused by factors such as Beijing's congestion control may cause certain fluctuations in the domestic auto market in the first quarter of this year or even longer, but the growth rate will still reach 10%-15%, and the global car ownership level will further rise sharply. We know that 80% of the tires are in the field of replacement tires, so the high level of car ownership will make the rigid demand for tires stronger, further supporting the price of its raw material rubber

in addition, at present, the inventory level of raw materials in tire factories is even retrogressive, which also determines that their stock demand has not yet been released. In addition, as the peak season of rubber production is approaching the end, Southeast Asian spot traders raise their quotations and force factories to purchase. As the consumption field usually starts a large number of purchases before winter at the end of February, the demand for natural rubber in January will further increase

optimistic in the first quarter, weak in the second and third quarters

from the perspective of short cycle (month), the vacuum at the policy level will continue to be maintained, and liquidity will remain abundant under the dual effects of the opening of credit in the new year and the maintenance of low interest rates in European and American economies. At the same time, from the perspective of the fundamentals of rubber itself, the supply will be decreasing in the first quarter, while the domestic procurement demand will be supported by the stock effect of the Spring Festival and price comparison factors. The overall supply and demand pattern is still tight, supporting Shanghai rubber to look for breakthrough space

the only worry is that the current position structure of Shanghai Jiao is not conducive to rising. Short positions are as stable as Mount Tai, and long positions continue to rotate, bringing some weak emotions to investors, which is also the reason why Shanghai Jiao has never formed a directional breakthrough. Judging from the current factors, we tend to continue to be optimistic about the performance of Shanghai Jiaotong in the next month, and the upward trend of crude oil will also provide support. At the same time, we hold a weak view on the rubber price in the second and third quarters. Of course, this also requires further clarity on the weather and policy in the production area in January

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